California Journal Analysis:
Assembly Districts 61-70

District 61

(45% D - 42% R) Democrat: Paul Avila of Ontario. Republican: Incumbent Fred Aguiar of Ontario. Libertarian: Michael Pilch of Pomona.

Democrats have been rumbling about placing Aguiar, the speaker pro tem, on their target list. But the incumbent ran 20 points ahead of registration in 1994 and, even discounting for that year's GOP tide, should have no trouble winning his third and final term in the lower house. There is almost no anecdotal evidence that a Democrat can carry the district for it has voted solidly Republican in statewide races all through the 1990s. Only Bill Clinton won here in 1992, and even he attracted less than 40 percent of the vote. Avila, a member of the Ontario-Montclair School Board, is an attractive candidate, but if Democrats do end up spending some money on him, it will indicate one thing: They have more money than they know what to do with. SAFE REPUBLICAN

District 62

(57% D - 31% R) Democrat: Incumbent Joe Baca of San Bernardino. Republican: Glenn Elssmann of Loma Linda.

Republicans have made early gestures about taking out two-term incumbent Baca in a November upset, with Loma Linda Councilman Elssmann, a sixth grade teacher, as their instrument. Their campaign will try to portray Baca as too liberal for the district, which has charted a somewhat uneven course across the electoral landscape over the years. It voted for Pete Wilson both in 1990 and 1994, and for Dan Lungren in 1994. But it also voted for Lungren's opponent in 1990, for Dianne Feinstein in '94 and Barbara Boxer in '92. Bill Clinton beat George Bush here nearly two-to-one in 1992. Baca himself increased his share of the vote in 1994 despite the Republican tide. Unless Assembly Republicans decide to throw substantial funds at this race, which remains a possibility given the overflow in their campaign larder, there is little chance that Baca's quiet Assembly career won't extend to a third and final term. LEANS DEMOCRATIC

District 63

(39% D - 48% R) Democrat: Wilma Strinati of Highland. Republican: William Leonard of Upland.

With GOP Assemblyman Jim Brulte termed out, an open seat developed in this Republican corner of the Inland Empire. It remained open for a nanosecond, which was about as long as it took veteran lawmaker Bill Leonard to decide that he wanted to continue his legislative career beyond 1996, when he, too, is termed out of the state Senate. Leonard was first elected to the Assembly in 1978, where he served for a decade before moving over to the Senate. Brulte, on the other hand, is running for the Senate seat now held by Leonard. Thus, the first term-limits era seat swap. By moving from the upper to lower house, Leonard likely is the vanguard of what could be a trend among termed-out senators. SAFE REPUBLICAN

District 64

(42% D - 45% R) Democrat: Grace Slocum. Republican: Rod Pacheco. Libertarian: Phil Turner. All of Riverside.

Incumbent Republican Ted Weggeland decided to leave the Assembly two years before term limits would have ousted him, thus opening up a Riverside-based seat that leans GOP. Democrat Slocum, a Riverside Community College trustee, easily won a three-way primary, but she faces an uphill struggle this fall. Although the district itself has been competitive in the past, cash-strapped Democrats in Sacramento likely will not have the resources to aid her cause. The reason they may be reluctant to spend here is the presence of Pacheco, a pro-choice deputy district attorney who brushed off four opponents to win a hard-fought March primary. Pacheco, who hasn't lost a criminal case in Riverside County for more than a decade, combined impeccable law-and-order credentials with a hefty contribution from the California Teachers' Association to snuff out a strong primary challenge from conservative Verne Lauritzen, who had been backed by the likes of Senator Ray Haynes and Assemblyman Bruce Thompson. Had Lauritzen won, he may have drawn Democratic fire come November. Pacheco won't, especially after corraling the endorsement of local Democratic icon Bob Presley. SAFE REPUBLICAN

District 65

(39% D - 47% R) Democrat: Shirley Morton of Calimesa. Republican: Incumbent Brett Granlund of Yucaipa. Natural Law: Douglas Wallack of Moreno Valley.

Democrats talk about making a run at Granlund this year, but talk is cheap. Running a campaign in this kind of district isn't. Nearly half the registered voters are Republicans, and they show a consistent loyalty toward the party. Pete Wilson carried the 65th by 35 points in his '94 re-election bid, and U.S. Senate candidate Michael Huffington beat incumbent Dianne Feinstein here by 27 points. Granlund, a former Yucaipa councilman, won big as well for what at the time was an open seat. As a rookie, Granlund was given the chairmanship of the Assembly Health Committee but his overall performance as a legislator is considered lackluster. Still, Democrats would have to throw several hundred thousand dollars at Morton, a Calimesa councilwoman, and most of that cash would have to come from Sacramento given that her own fund-raising effort has failed to produce the kind of bankroll required to oust an incumbent Republican in a heavily GOP district. Still, last-second ambushes do occur in legislative politics, and this might be one place where Democrats will lay in the weeds, waiting for statewide momentum and a sudden influx of cash. SAFE REPUBLICAN

District 66

(33% D - 53% R) Democrat: Patsy Hockersmith of Corona. Republican: Incumbent Bruce Thompson of Temecula. Libertarian: Bill Reed of Perris.

No presidential coattail in the universe is long enough to carry a Democrat to victory in this district. Freshman Thompson gets to be a sophomore. SAFE REPUBLICAN

District 67

(33% D - 51% R) Democrat: Cliff Brightman of Fountain Valley. Republican: Incumbent Scott Baugh of Huntington Beach. Reform: Donald Rowe of Los Alamitos.

Republican Baugh has suffered through what could be charitably called an "interesting" freshman year after replacing the recalled former speaker, Republican Doris Allen, last December. Baugh wasn't two seconds into his term when an Orange County grand jury indicted him on a rash of felony and misdemeanor charges stemming from the financing of this recall-driven candidacy. Most of those charges were dismissed in mid-September thanks to the way the district attorney presented evidence to the grand jury, but the incumbent still must face trial on one felony and four misdemeanor counts before the election. Meanwhile, GOP voters expressed some displeasure with Baugh by giving him just 50 percent of the primary vote. Fortunately for Baugh, two other candidates split the remaining 50 percent. Democrats talk about targeting Baugh, but the registration figures here are too daunting -- indictments, or no indictments. Baugh may not serve a full term of his own, but it won't be because Democrats beat him in November. SAFE REPUBLICAN

District 68

(40% D - 46% R) Democrat: Audrey Gibson. Republican: Incumbent Curt Pringle. Both of Anaheim.

Assembly Speaker Curt Pringle's battles are elsewhere, and they are as personal as they are institutional. In San Diego, Fresno, Palo Alto, Watsonville, Santa Cruz, the North Coast, suburban Los Angeles -- anywhere a GOP incumbent is threatened, or an open seat now held by a Republican is vulnerable to pilferage -- Pringle must wage war with his reputation firmly on the line. With 41 votes in his caucus, he can ill-afford to misstep, for an error in any venue potentially translates into loss of the house and, therefore, the speakership. Only with control of the house can he and his caucus fashion a Republican platform for the critical elections of 1998 and 2000. Pringle has consolidated control over his caucus fund-raising and campaign efforts, and he now must translate that control into victory. And then, there is the personal side. His speakership was made possible by victories engineered by someone else -- Jim Brulte of Rancho Cucamonga, who cast a long and deep shadow over Pringle's first year as speaker. Although Pringle was seen as major domo for the caucus' policy making operation, many continued to look to Brulte for political insight, which couldn't help but rankle Pringle and his minions. As a result, Pringle needs to return a Republican majority to the Assembly in this election or risk having his speakership forever demeaned as the incidental byproduct of Brulte's talent. SAFE REPUBLICAN

*District 69

(54% D - 34% R) Democrat: Lou Correa of Anaheim. Republican: Incumbent Jim Morrissey of Anaheim. Natural Law: Larry Engwall of Santa Ana.

On paper, this district looks as though it ought to be fairly comfortable for a Democrat. Democrats have represented it in the past; most recently Tom Umberg, who left in 1994 to make a failed run for attorney general. But overall, this is not a good performance district for Democrats. Pete Wilson and Michael Huffington carried the district in 1994, while Wilson and Dan Lungren also carried it in 1990, as did conservative Republican Bruce Herschensohn against Barbara Boxer in the 1992 U.S. Senate race. The Democratic candidate to succeed Umberg in 1994 -- the president of the Santa Ana Chamber of Commerce -- cratered against Morrissey, a poor showing due in part to a bitter primary against a Latino in a district where Latinos make up 65 percent of the population. Morrissey, on the other hand, ran a sophisticated campaign that even included a Spanish-language phone bank. He also benefitted from the GOP tide of '94. Morrissey once again will attempt to run strong in the Latino community, but he has several problems not encountered in 1994. First, the Democratic candidate -- Correa -- is Latino, and he may get substantial help from Assembly Democrats -- especially the Latino caucus. Second, Latinos have been registering to vote in substantial numbers throughout the state, and they are not registering in any party that numbers Pete Wilson among its members. That should translate into local support for Correa. Both sides have targeted this district, which means lots of money, lots of mail and a leg up to the best get-out-the-vote taxi service. TOSS-UP

District 70

(29% D - 55% R) Democrat: Shirley Palley. Republican: Incumbent Marilyn Brewer. Libertarian. Gene Reed. All of Irvine. Natural Law: Paul Fisher of Costa Mesa.

Let's see. A 26-point GOP registration bulge. A popular first-term incumbent. Uh, SAFE REPUBLICAN

These district-by-district analyses are provided by the California Journal.

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