California Journal Analysis:
Senate Districts 21-39

*District 21

(44% D - 41% R) Democrat: Adam Schiff of Burbank. Republican: Paula Boland of Glendale. Libertarian: Bob New of Glendale.

With two competitive Assembly districts nested within, and a competitive congressional race overlapping, this Senate race is part of what's been called "Ground Zero" by Democrats. In fact, it is probably Ground Zero's "Ground Zero." Since 1992, registration has flipped in this one-time GOP bastion, thanks largely to demographic changes which have brought more Democratic voters into the district. Four years ago, an unheralded challenger spent $10,000 and kept veteran incumbent Newt Russell under 50 percent, and Democratic registration has grown enough to give Feinstein the edge over Huffington in '94. With this in mind, and polling data showing the Democrats more than competitive this time out, Senate Republican Leader Rob Hurtt tried to cajole Pasadena Assemblyman Bill Hoge into running for the termed-out Russell's seat. Hoge passed, leaving a bitter four-way primary that Boland won with about a third of the vote. Boland, a termed-out assemblywoman who moved into the district from the San Fernando Valley, was clearly not the first choice of either Hurtt or Russell, who backed voucher advocate Wilbert Smith over her in the primary. Still, she weathered the carpetbagger tag and boasts a powerful array of high-profile endorsements, among them Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan. Her itinerant ways upset the district's GOP regulars, however, and as of this writing two of her primary foes had not formally endorsed her. Schiff, a former federal prosecutor-turned-corporate lawyer, earned his shot in a respectable campaign for Assembly two years ago against Glendale Republican James Rogan. His prosecutorial background at least partially deflects the usual GOP advantage on the crime issue, as well as Boland's status as chair of the Assembly Public Safety Committee, but she still boasts strong backing from law enforcement and victims groups. Both candidates are proven fund raisers and both are expected to receive substantial assistance from their respective caucuses. Spending could top $1 million a side. While carpetbagging is rarely decisive as an issue, Boland's open identification with Valley secession -- a non-issue in her new district -- could give Schiff an opening to exploit. Boland, meanwhile, is expected to hammer away at conservative themes which have proven resonance in a district which, despite recent trends, is still good Republican territory. Viewed by both sides as a crucial swing seat, this campaign could very well wind up as one of those "last one standing wins" kinds of races. TOSS-UP

District 23

(53% D - 30% R) Democrat: Incumbent Tom Hayden of Pacific Palisades. Republican: Scott Scheiber of West Hills. Libertarian: Charles Black of Malibu. Peace and Freedom: Shirley Rachel Isaacson of Malibu. Natural Law: Robert Swanson of Pacific Palisades.

Hayden drew some national exposure at the Democratic National Convention this summer, as the former '60s radical and "Chicago Seven" member returned to the Windy City as a delegate and self-appointed peacemaker. Nonetheless, Hayden has spent most of his time lately positioning himself on local issues in Los Angeles, giving rise to considerable speculation about a possible run for L.A. mayor next year. Nothing that happens this November will staunch those ambitions. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

District 25

(71% D - 14% R) Democrat: Incumbent Teresa Hughes of Inglewood. Republican: Cliff McClain of Los Angeles.

This urban district was the scene of the state's only significant primary challenge undertaken against a sitting incumbent Senator. Believing Hughes had reneged on a promise to bow out, termed-out Assemblyman Curtis Tucker launched an aggressive and well-financed campaign. Hughes seemed to be in some trouble until GOP Leader Rob Hurtt decided to dabble in the race, sending $50,000 Tucker's way. Democrats in the district and Hughes' traditional education allies circled the wagons. Taking money from tobacco and gaming interests was one thing, but taking money from Hurtt was quite another. Hurtt's contribution was widely seen as a bid to force Senate President pro Tem Bill Lockyer to pump some money into Hughes, but in the end she didn't need that much help. Tucker overplayed his hand and will have to wait until 2000 for another crack. With her busy spring a distant memory, Hughes will have an easy autumn. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

*District 27

(47% D - 39% R) Democrat: Betty Karnette of Long Beach. Republican: Phil Hawkins of Bellflower.

With two competitive Assembly races nested within its confines, the Long Beach-centered district being vacated by termed-out Senator Bob Beverly is another one of those "Ground Zero" style races that figures to draw oodles of money and nasty mail. Both sides can point to numbers indicating a potential advantage. Democrats cite registration, which has been growing their way, and the result from four years ago, when modestly-funded challenger Brian Finander came within a point of knocking off Beverly. Republicans point to a klatch of Reagan Democrats and voting behavior which includes a decisive win for Huffington over Feinstein and nearly three-to-one support for Prop. 187. Both candidates come into the race toned from nominally-competitive primaries. Hawkins, a one-term Assemblyman taking a chance to move up, had the tougher race of the two, running against the fairly well-funded Frank Colonna, who had the backing of ex-Governor George Deukmejian. Decidedly conservative, Hawkins has enjoyed considerable past support from the California Independent Business PAC, and has also received hundreds of thousands in loans from the widow of a former business partner. Karnette, a former teacher, won a surprise Assembly victory in 1992, only to be surprised herself by Steve Kuykendall two years later. Karnette's primary against 1992 contender Finander was somewhat easier than Hawkins'. The distinctions between the two are fairly clear. Hawkins opposes abortion rights and gun control and walks the conservative line on the environment, taxes, etc. Karnette had a reliably Democratic voting record during her time in the Assembly, and is backed by the traditional labor-education coalition. Each figures to portray the other as too extreme for the district. The grandmotherly Karnette showed strength in early polling, and will get plenty of help from the party poobahs. Still, she needed a good Democratic year in '92 to pull off that upset win over incumbent Gerald Felando, and she'll need another one to beat Hawkins, who won't "Hurtt" for money from Sacramento either. TOSS-UP

District 29

(41% D - 45% R) Democrat: Tommy Randle of San Dimas. Republican: Incumbent Richard Mountjoy of Monrovia.

Mountjoy wins the award for having it both ways -- a term-limit supporter whose well-timed special election guarantees he'll beat the eight-year cap by two years. Randle is more than a name, but not much more. SAFE REPUBLICAN

District 31

(39% D - 47% R) Democrat: Gary George of Redlands. Republican: Jim Brulte of Rancho Cucamonga.

The first seat swap prompted by term limits features Brulte, a termed-out assemblyman, trading places with Republican Bill Leonard, a termed-out senator. Leonard has represented this district since 1988; Brulte has been in the Assembly since 1990. Neither will work up a sweat for November. More intriguing is the role Brulte will assume once he gets to the Senate. A former minority leader and architect of the party's stunning 1994 capture of the Assembly, Brulte is likely to chafe on the back bench. SAFE REPUBLICAN

District 33

(29% D - 56% R) Democrat: David Heywood. Republican: Incumbent John Lewis. Both of Orange.

Lewis has been in the Legislature since 1980 and is running for his final Senate term. That doesn't mean the end of his legislative career, however. He's eligible for three more terms in the Assembly. Any bets? SAFE REPUBLICAN

District 35

(31% D - 53% R) Democrat: Madelene Arakelian. Republican: Incumbent Ross Johnson. Natural Law: Nat Adam. All of Irvine. This is the Senate district that provided ground zero for nearly a year of legislative turmoil, for it was here, early in 1995, that then-Assemblyman Johnson moved from his ancestral home in Fullerton to run in a special election to replace departing GOP Senator Marian Bergeson, who had been elected an Orange County supervisor. By carpetbagging into the district and rounding up support from the county GOP establishment, Johnson angered a Republican Assembly colleague who also had ambitions for the Senate -- Doris Allen. Johnson won that special election, but the circumstances and the subsequent rough-and-tumble campaign seared Allen with a lasting bitterness. She engineered her revenge later that year by conspiring with Assembly Democrats to capture the speakership and deny that post to fellow Republicans she alleged had conspired against her Senate campaign and on behalf of Johnson. Allen's ascension generated institutional chaos that did not end until she was recalled in December, which allowed Republicans finally to elect a legitimate GOP speaker. As a sidelight, her recall also led to the election of Republican Scott Baugh to the Assembly -- and to felony and misdemeanor charges against a small platoon of GOP operatives (including Baugh) for their activities during the recall. All this, of course, has little to do with Johnson -- except that his decision to carpetbag into this Senate district set the balls in motion. His reward? Another term in the Senate. SAFE REPUBLICAN

District 37

(37% D - 46% R) Democrat: Hans Schroeder of North Palm Springs. Republican: Incumbent Dave Kelley of Idyllwild. Libertarian: Donna Tello of Poway. Natural Law: Jim Meuer of Palm Springs. Reform: George Angell of San Diego.

If nothing else, this is the most crowded Senate ballot of the year -- a fact that shouldn't deter Kelley's march to a final term. He's been a legislator from this area since 1978, having previously served in the Assembly. SAFE REPUBLICAN

*District 39

(38% D - 40% R) Democrat: Deirdre Alpert. Republican: Joe Dolphin. Natural Law: Stuart Knoles. All of San Diego.

This portion of San Diego represents another ground zero for Election '96, with battles for this Senate district overlapping with heavily contested races for two Assembly districts (76 and 78) and a congressional seat (49). On paper, SD 39 looks like a comfortable district for Republicans. Voter registration cuts their way; Pete Wilson, Dan Lungren and Michael Huffington all carried it in 1994, and Proposition 187 passed here overwhelmingly. But looks can be deceiving, especially in San Diego, and especially in a district where more than 20 percent of voters register other than Republican or Democrat. For the past seven years, SD 39 and its pre-reapportionment predecessor have been represented by Lucy Killea, a Democrat who became an independent in 1991. Prior to winning a Senate seat, Killea served in the Assembly, where she was succeeded by Alpert, who now is trying to succeed Killea in the upper house. Alpert is no stranger to winning in so-called "bad" districts. Her AD 78 is nested in the 39th, and registration there favors Republicans by an even larger margin. Yet Alpert always has attracted crossover support from Republican voters. She has a motivated and energetic campaign staff, good fund raising and consultant Richie Ross. The 39th's other nested Assembly district is AD 76, where registration between the parties is dead even and which also is represented by a Democratic woman. Still, there is a reason Killea shed the "D" after her name after the 1991 redistricting. Voters here tend to be independent, but not necessarily liberal -- as victories for Wilson, Lungren and Huffington indicate. Dolphin is an attractive opponent. He has his own financial resources and an appointed position as president of the state Community Colleges Board of Governors that gives him a platform on education that cancels Alpert's longtime standing as a legislative expert on education. A Republican centrist, he is expected to characterize Alpert as too liberal for the district -- a strategy that hasn't worked against her in the past. For instance, in 1994 Alpert opposed Proposition 187, yet won re-election to the Assembly anyway. Both campaigns will rely on television -- both network and cable -- with as much as $1 million expected to be spent on TV alone. LEANS DEMOCRATIC

These district-by-district analyses are provided by the California Journal.

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